The day after 2012.

It's 2013. The beginning of a long crisis like this generation has not experienced before. This is the year not mentioned in a prophecy, but besides we can now assume what it brings to us.

15-20 years ago, Sarajevo is starving, Vukovar  is bleeding under the ruins, Belgrade is tightening belt due to the sanctions, in Rwanda they had the "Olympics" in intertribal massacres of human beings. During this time the Germans enjoyed summer holidays in Tunisia, the Dutch sold their tulips, and the Australians looked after their business. However, now comes the time when everyone in the world is going to bear the burden, not exactly alike, but ranging from anxiety and agony, if you're comforted with this. One author before me began his warning like this: "Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most-widely respected geologists, physicists, bankers and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global 'Peak oil'."

In my humble opinion, the situation became very serious when the Pentagon and Lloyd formally proclaimed about, along with the British Royal Institute of International Affairs (aka Chatham House). I sincerely hope that these great players made a mistake in their documents, that they were drunk or at least a little doped, if not stoned when they wrote their opinions, and I rejoice if I am wrong. If, however, they lied for some of their interests, I am glad about that too. But I'm more and more afraid that the truth is cruel as much as their predictions were sober.

"Peak Oil" (peak of crude oil production, peak of crude oil exploitation) is the moment when all the technologies for extracting oil in the world pulls out of stock the most it can and when the pace of delivery to market reach the maximum, followed by a decline. Therefore, it is not a time when oil is gone, but when the world production is becoming a bottleneck due to limited technology, smaller amounts and increasing demand for oil. For our civilization it is almost the same as when the oil runs out completely, the difference is only in the fact that this moment begins to expand through the years and decades, as in the Gaussian-like curve diagram (see figure). Recall that with the decline in oil deliveries increases its price, proportionally.

Everything was nice in the first part of the curve and uphill when the consumers were less in number than today, and the supply of oil was more than sufficient. However, on the downhill section of the curve consuming derivates are increasing, while oil production stagnated (except oil exhausts actually faster than it is renewed) and gets the impression that oil is rapidly diminishing.

Why is this the beginning of many years of agony? Because we are the civilization developed upon the technology that depends on petroleum, the natural resource that is not infinite, so while slowly barrels are coming on the market so we will choke in the problems. What kind of problems? First, there is an increasing oil price. We recently had the fuel price increases, the exact situation that have shown to us there is something great that shakes on the market. If only fuel is more expensive our life would be so anxious, because the whole market is getting more expensive along with the fuel, because of expensive production and transportation-based fuel. But let's make clear one important thing – petroleum is not only the fuel! It's a big mistake that makes the one who thinks it's only a fuel, and put their hopes on electric vehicles. No. On the basis of petroleum is based manufacturing of tens of thousands of every day items your eyes watch and your hands consume - automotive rubber, pharmaceuticals, plastics, cooking oil, lubricants, varnishes, paints, cosmetics, detergents, fertilizers, medical supplies, machine parts and houses materials, materials for the maintenance of what we made, mobile phones, computers, fabric ... Just use your own imagination to list all that is necessary for today's lifestyle and maintenance of residential buildings, and realize how much we depend on oil.

Peak Oil is, believe it or not, expected for decades, but the warnings were ridiculed by lullabies sung by the powerful cartels that silence the humanity in comfort, in the "American dream". The hum came to an end. These months the Pentagon and Lloyd are decided to play the noisy awakening. I only convey an echo of the alarm.

I am bringing to you some of the sentences out of warnings from U.S. military document (the largest single consumer of oil in the world) from April 2010. sentences that they have never spoken:

"... By 2015. Lack of oil may have significant political and economic impact ..."

"... Decline in economic growth could boost some unresolved tension, boost poor countries to collapse and have serious economic impact on China and India ..."

"... We must not forget that the Great Depression (the crisis of early 20th century) bore many totalitarian regimes who are looking for solutions in a merciless war ..."

A few months afterwards (July 2010)., Lloyd Chatham House and a similar dramatic fashion declare:

"... By 2013. It is expected a record price per barrel from over $ 200 .."

"... Catastrophic consequences for businesses that are not prepared for the upcoming shortage of oil and the economy with lower carbon emissions ..."

"... Britain must be ready for Peak Oil and interrupted power supply during the growing demand for fuel in China and India ..."

"... Companies that learn about an advantage in the new energy realities will be competitive and survive ... if you fail, you will experience very expensive and disastrous consequences ..."

"... we are calling calling on manufacturers, retailers and the wider business community to reassess global supply chains and their just-in time models because the current system is increasingly vulnerable to disruption."

Pentagon has its own interests for concern due to the unstable global security, while Lloyd as an umbrella insurance company gives instructions to the lower institutions to correct their rules on payment of damages adapted to the coming crisis and possible damage from global climate change.

Let's make it clear - calm down, energy will not disappear and the crisis would not occur suddenly as an asteroid impact. Energy changes its form, and we'll always have wind, water and sun for most of the energy we need. Now, let's get troubled again - we are to begin to miss the basic raw material of our civilization. The more so as to the market rushed in the corporate consumers from China and India. Apart from the various power plants, wind turbines and the windmills we already have, we need urgently to find a replacement for petroleum in all the branches of the industry. Some solutions already exist, but until it starts to live in cost-effective production, we are going to weep, bleed and starve for many years. More expensive items will deepen the financial crisis, a costly and hard to reach medical care will produce more sick and dead, while the lack of materials for road maintenance, water supply, buildings and vehicles refer to the collapse of the structure and decay of what we possess, and worst, the lack of oil will diminish production and food availability and delivery of drinking water. Residents will think that their governments are unable to solve the problems, so they will go out to the streets and clash, and more stronger governments will introduce a strong-arm regimes. Somewhere, there would be an conflicts of interest around the resources and of various political programs, all in order to bring out new wars, with the political and national justification. And all of this can last for decades, as our experience in many African civil wars shows, and as show us the crisis in Cuba and starvation in North Korea.

How to survive? I'd love to have a simple recipe. I'll write about that some other time. But I can only recommend that we learn from those who have long suffered a similar crisis. The citizens of Havana in Cuba watch for long how their city collapses without maintenance, but on the ruins they are grown the vegetables without artificial means to survive. Why shouldn't we ensure a piece of a soil? I recommend for you to join together, inside your family or among neighbors, and start growing your own vegetables. For water, do not expect mercy from your community to send you a tank and to long wait in a line for a little water. Find a way to save your water wells and even look for healthy and natural resources and springs in your area. Get rid of your debts. It is very likely that the banks will reach for our accounts in the long period of crisis, and even take our property. Many will lose their houses and yards. The only value that we would have had in the years to come will not be a virtual account numbers, nor allowed minus on the bank accounts, but our own house, land, tools, seeds of vegetables that we were preserved and perhaps a bit of gold and silver values we saved for ourselves.

In the period before us, medical care will only be for the privileged, so it is good to strengthen your health disavowing from harmful products and switching to foods that are based more on vegetables and less on meat.

Community. Individuals do not have much chance of survival, even today, let alone in times of crisis. Do not destroy the bridges, build relationships, maintain friendships, we will need one another. Regardless of your religion, nationality, ideological commitment - together we are stronger. Reconcile, offer compromises, and offer your help in order to get help when the time comes.

That's all for now from me, and about announcing the beginning of the worst crisis of the industrial age. We can discuss further on a simple forum that I made for such an subjects, the forum we are going to build together - http://zeljko-bosnjak.net/forum/index.php – you only need to register. I'll probably write about this topic more in the future as the situation is developing, and as we are facing a major world player's discussion about ongoing troubles and about does we need to create a panic or everything will be fine with the humanity. In the meantime, perhaps now is not the time for making doubt for too long and to wonder whom to believe, it is always wise to prepare for the future.